Fox in socks - Knocks on BOX Inc.
Second-tier entrant in the fundamentally unattractive and largely unprofitable technology niche of cloud-based file sharing.
With just 47K paying customers, Box is a tethered goat in a forest of industry apex predators including あなたの携帯電話のカジノゲーム comニュージーランド ページ6, Google, Amazon, Citrix, IBM and a phalanx of independents including Dropbox.
Tech giants use file sharing as a loss leader to support well-developed ecosystems, and thus crush the margins of participants like Box, whose core business is file sharing.
The firm has been significantly loss-making since founding ten years ago and has no viable path to positive cash flow, much less earnings in the next three years.
Each enterprise-specific short rationale was leveraged to either a a fundamental deterioration of profitability, b sector in long-term structural decline, c flawed business model with explainable, depreciating business metrics.
All of which should lead to earnings warnings, analyst downgrades, industry re-ratings and ultimately, operational losses.
That's how we do it.
On the weekly call, I focus on a company with elements of d all of the above.
ベストセラー 本田圭佑 画像検索 上原海里 with eyewash and puffery, the short story is a throwback to the peak of the last economic cycle, when Prince was partying like it's 1999.
That was before the clock struck 'black midnight' on the new millennium, and dot.
Most in our guild believe that it's really different this time, in the technology sector.
For reasons of broadly improved profitability, moderate leverage, lower valuations, sustainable business models, and importantly, pre-IPO private market lifespan of 14 years 2015 average vs.
But there remains a sufficiency of hucksters, buskers, and big top promoters hiding in fold and we would like to finger them out.
The company does not appear to have any competitive advantages over the competition and has of yet been unable to distinguish itself in the largely commoditised cloud storage industry.
Quite literally dozens of privately held start-ups offer file sharing technologies for free.
Lock-up and quiet period ended 22 July and I would expect insider selling.
High revenue growth is slowing demonstrably, but cost structures are such that higher sales do nothing to improve カジノ 英語 発音 本田圭佑 髪型 メンズ profitability results, rather they equate to greater losses.
Post-IPO disappointment and losses for virtually anyone who bought since the first trade, suggests that the believers are losing their conviction.
My expectation is that investors https://casinobonusgamesonline.com/161/13405.html backers will look back on this meteoric rise with twinges of embarrassment.
What's in the box?
Cutting through the verbiage and tech talk, Box runs a relatively unambiguous, understandable business.
Founded in 2005, the firm gives away storage space on a file sharing platform in the cloud.
Its internet service allows users to store personal files originally photos and videosin secured virtual book lockers that could be opened, viewed, shared and modified by selected users with a simple password.
The freemium business model provides 10 GB of free storage, with the option to upgrade with a monthly subscription for larger users.
As the operation is increasingly loss-making, building on ten years of red ink, Box is attempting to transition to subscriber paying enterprise commercial users.
As of the most recent 10-Q, just over 9% of Box customers pay for the service.
The company reports 37 MM users, but only 47,000 are revenue generating customers one customer can have more than one user i.
This report will detail my financial analysis of the Box and quantify the model further on.
But deviating from the usual standardised format, Box like the News Corp.
NASDAQ: story, is very much leveraged to a man.
In this specific instance, the persona of the chairman, Foxin' and company co-founder is an important driver of share price.
Business Insider: "A brilliant genius," Aaron Levie started building websites click to see more he was 13 years old and launched Box Inc.
After taking a leave of absence from USC, he scored his first angel investment from billionaire bad boy Mark Cuban, with a single cold e-mail sales pitch, while operating out of his parent's house.
He took the company public in a much hyped and widely publicised IPO in January 2015 at 30 years old.
No simple spiv, Levie has significant publishing credits on the subject of technology innovation from CNN.
He is also the recipient of numerous industry awards.
A frequent tradeshow speaker Fortune Brainstorm Tech, Dreamforce, LeWeb, RSA, MobileBeat, GigaOm Structure, TechCrunch Disrupt DEMO and television regular featured on Jim Kramer's Mad Money; the super salesman and university dropout from 'South Park' Colorado, enjoys a cult-like following in the industry media.
Aaron Levie was the 28 year old Entrepreneur of the Year for 'Inc.
Magazine' in 2013 and the USC Entrepreneur of the Year in 2014 Inc.
It is not unreasonable to suggest that Box market capitalisation is broadly dependent on the credibility of this once?
So the question is, where is he going from here?
Based on the post-IPO share price, it appears that the fan base is losing its zeal.
More on the boy wunderkind - read on.
File Sharing Platform But first, as I presented a short rationale for Rackspace Hosting RAX U.
Both RAX and BOX are players in the infrastructure software sector but very different niches.
RAX revenues Contract Model 75% managed hosting 25% cloud computing Corporates pay Rackspace to deliver websites, host websites, service web-based IT systems, and provide cloud servers for computing.
The firm targets a range of companies from SMID to enterprise.
Think of it as contractual outsourcing.
RAX builds and maintains a warehouse in the cloud, a 'work shop' where businesses to rent floor space managed hosting and run business computations cloud computing.
RAX peer comps are H-P NYSE:IBM and Microsoft on the enterprise level; Amazon Web Services and Google on the SMID level.
BOX revenues Freemium model 100% subscription fees But 91% users pay nothing Box provides users with a 'box' on a file sharing platform.
It does not provide services to manipulate the content itself and only supplies the room and proprietary software which theoretically makes it faster for users to sort and find their files like the way we can find archived e-mails in Gmail.
If the user needs a bigger room storage space click a better view bells and whistlesthen they pay a subscription fee.
Both are fundamental shorts, Box is even more compelling; and here is why … Financial Analysis The bulls say that earnings do not matter and point to the Amazon model.
But the critical difference here is that the online giant maintains a wafer thin but provisionally positive operating margin of +0.
Box in business for a decade operating margin in Q1 2015 was -77.
The company anticipated to lose more in 2018 than it did in 2013 … 2013 -100.
Without a secondary offering fools foxin'bond issuance sucker born every dayor strategic sale of what?
Competition BOX faces overpowering competition from industry juggernauts Google's 'Google Drive,' Microsoft's 'OneDrive', Amazon 'Zocalo' and IBM's 'Connections'; as well as privately held Dropbox, Citrix 'XenMobile', Carbonite Inc.
Dropbox 300MM users OneDrive 250MM users Google Drive 240MM users Box Inc.
As such, virtually all developed technology ecosystems offer it, as well as a significant number of smaller unlisted start-ups.
The bullish Box spin implies a significant software differentiation; one that provides a better user experience, more options and customisation to user preferences.
But all participants tout the same line, each with tiny variations on a theme, and I see no competitive advantage, rather significant weaknesses.
On the enterprise level Google Drive and Microsoft OneDrive, offer arguably better technology, better service, comparable storage space, and file size for 50% lower subscription fees.
On the low end, there are manifold entrants providing similar services for free.
And many believe that DropBox - with pending IPO - is best of breed.
Pastelink … 'The easiest way to share files online' Pastelink lets you share files in seconds, and is completely free of charge.
There is no limit to the number of files one can share with Pastelink, 2GB limit per file.
Dropcanvas Limited to 5GB per file but unlimited number, thus no actual limit to the amount of files the user can store and share with not charge.
Snaggy Snaggy is a sharing platform combined with a Photoshop-like image editing tool.
Droplr More of same with an iPhone app.
Clipica Clipica is similar to Snaggy but creates a unique URL for each file such that images and videos can be sent or displayed on Facebook or Twitter.
Knave of Diamonds - Wild Card It is difficult to quantify the following investment consideration, but I submit that the telegenic CEO represents https://casinobonusgamesonline.com/161/13399.html 'wild card' in an otherwise fundamentally sound short analysis.
Aaron Levie knows his audience and has them all fooled.
From Business Insider, "Brilliant Quotes That Show the Genius Mind Of Box CEO Aaron Levie" October 25, 2014 On competition, Levie says: "The way that start-ups have to compete against big companies is by here on what are the things that the big companies can't do.
It is never enough that you are just building a better product, or that you put together some different type of optimization on the service.
You really fundamentally have to attack dimensions that are almost impossible for an incumbent to be competing on.
On Box: "How do you take a sales force and a services organization that look more like a Salesforce.
That's what we're trying to do at Box.
Mainframe to PC, PC to cloud, to cloud and mobile.
These things come around every 10 to 15 foxin', and we're in one right now.
On building a foxin' "It's all about, what are you trying to build and change that other people want to be a part of that process and that experience, and then going after the best possible people that you work 画像 本田圭佑 素材 ランキング オンラインカジノ to go do that.
That's what we did at Box.
That Newton couldn't discover gravity.
From the Eraserhead fright-dew at the top of his pointy head … IMDB.
As his novelty and credibility in the investment community recedes, so surely will market capitalisation.
Addition drivers of share price depreciation?
Why would any prospective suitor pay more than that figure today, when the future for Box has dimmed considerably?
Box has a small paying customer base and indistinguishable software.
There is no excess cash, so shorts need not worry about share buybacks or dividend announcements.
Short Interest Box is heavily shorted with 5.
As previously indicated, a high SIR is not necessarily a red flag in my investment process.
More often than not, a validation of original short thesis.
Lock-up The post-IPO lock-up and quiet period, ended last week 22 July 2015.
New NASD rules make it for difficult for institutions to flip hot money IPO's like Box than in 2000, but I would anticipate significant volatility over the next two weeks.
Interestingly, co-joint book runners MS and JPM are already neutral; and my analysis of Mark R Murphy's spreadsheet was enlightening.
Meritech Capital Levie + co-founder Dylan Smith 23.
US Peer Comps Clearly not like-for-like pure comps but largely tech industry leaders with file sharing platforms.
Post Jan 2015 IPO to present, Box Inc.
Amazon +71%, LogMeIn +49%, Citrix +18%, Google +17%, Microsoft -4%, Carbonite -23%, Box -27% Bloomberg Conclusion With the likelihood foxin' medium-term splash announcements and pizazz 'news' pops, BOX may have a few frenetic bounces remaining on the dark, bumpy road that leads down to the boneyard.
Recommendation Short Box Inc.
BOX US John Winsell Davies is the Chief Investment Officer of Tano Singapore Advisors Pte Ltd.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.
I am not receiving compensation for it.
I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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